FACT 1 – CO2 concentrations during the ORDOVICIAN PERIOD were 12x higher than today’s concentrations at 4400ppm and yet an Ice Age took place during this period of time.
FACT 2 – CARBONIFEROUS PERIODS had CO2 concentrations similar today and glaciation did take place.
FACT 3 – A change in earth’s ALBEDO of just 1.5% corresponds to a change in the temperature of the earth of .5c.
FACT 4 – Volcanic activity causes a loss of atmospheric OZONE. Volcanic eruptions cause the stratosphere to warm while causing the surface temperatures to cool.
FACT 5 – Evidence says the STRATOSPHERE has undergone a slight warming trend since 1996.
FACT 6 – The wavelengths at which CO2 absorbs long wave radiation from earth, those being at wavelengths of 2.5, 4 and 15 microns are saturated. In other words, adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will not increase the ability of CO2 to further absorb long wave radiation being emitted from the earth at the bands in which CO2 does absorb long wave radiation from earth.
FACT 7 – The level of solar activity during the past 70 years (talking last century) is exceptional – the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8000 years ago. The sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only 10% of the past 11,400 years and almost all of the earlier high activity periods were shorter then the present episode.
FACT 8 – The sun’s total magnetic flux rose by a factor of 1.41 from 1964-1996 and by a factor of 2.3 since 1901.
FACT 9 – Since the MAUNDER SOLAR MINIMUM period ( 1615-1700 approx.), UV light from the sun has increased by at least 3%, and the solar irradiance has had an increase of at least .1% if not as high as .6% with average estimates in the increase in solar irradiance since the Maunder Minimum coming in at +0.25%.
FACT 10 – The MINOAN WARMING, ROMAN WARM PERIOD and MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD were all warmer than the current modern warm period which we suggest ended in 1998. All these three periods corresponded to periods of rather high solar activity.
MINOAN PERIOD – 1300 BC APPROXIMATELY
ROMAN PERIOD – 100 BC APPROXIMATELY
MEDIEVAL PERIOD – 1000 AD APPROXIMATELY
The common factors behind these three recent global warm periods were C02 concentrations were lower than today. Man had no impacts and solar activity was high.
What does that say about the small +.6C warming that took place last century? One of the many facts that have to be evaluated when trying to determine if there is any validity (which we believe there is not) to AGW (anthropologic global warming).
FACT 11 – Arctic Ice is running below normal over the past few years, however in contrast Antarctic Ice is running above normal over the past few years.
FACT 12 – AGW THEORY – Makes no attempt to explain how C02 (according to them, drives the climate) concentration changes in the past correlate to abrupt climate changes and how C02 could have been the cause of the many abrupt climate changes earth has had in the past.
For example, the Younger Dryas (abrupt cooling period) took less than a decade to start and less than a decade to end. It started around 10,800 BC, ended around 9500 BC. The end was so abrupt that it is thought temperatures in the N.H. rose as much as 10C in a period of a decade.
The AGW THEORY, based on C02 as the climate driver, does not show cause and effect from C02 when it comes to these abrupt climatic events. Southwest Weather, Inc. says since C02 trumps everything else (according to AGW THEORY), why then can’t they show cause and effect for abrupt climate change due to C02???
FACT 13 – At a temperature of 95˚ Fahrenheit and a dew point temperature of 60˚ Fahrenheit 0.63 inches of water will evaporate each day.
FACT 14 – Strong solar eruptions (flares and eruptive prominences) avoid sunspot maxima and even occur close to sunspot minima. This is why Southwest Weather, Inc. expects an increase in geological activity as solar cycle 24 subsides which will be by mid decade or sooner.
FACT 15 A – Solar wind strength (speed) can sustain itself going into a solar minimum (for a time) due to the energetic solar eruptions (mentioned in Fact 14) and coronal holes which are one of the causes of strong solar wind.
Observations indicate significant differences in coronal hole distribution can occur on the sun from one solar minimum to the next. If the coronal holes are broad and located in low solar latitudes, it could promote a strong solar wind/more magnetic activity for earth even though all other factors are indicating solar minimum conditions. These effects very likely will dissipate over time when the sun is in a prolonged solar minimum state. We are talking solar flux reading of sub 80. Solar flux being one of the measures used to determine solar activity.
FACT 15 B –
Southwest Weather, Inc., has devised a solar flux scale versus general climate temperature trends, all other factors neutral.
SOLAR FLUX VALUE CLIMATE TEMPERATURE TREND
150 OR HIGHER TEMPERATURE TREND UP
90-150 TEMPERATURE TREND NEUTRAL
90 OR LOWER TEMPERATURE TREND DOWN
FACT 16 – Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) particles are the primary source of ionization in the troposphere above 1 km. or .62 miles. Changes in ionization affect the abundance of aerosols that serve as nuclei of condensation for cloud formation. A weak solar wind, (speeds of 350km/sec or less) will promote more cosmic rays to enter the atmosphere of the earth.
FACT 17 – Southwest Weather, Inc. maintains that a more – AO, in addition to causing more climatic extremes (drought, floods, heat waves and cold waves) likely promotes greater snow coverage for the Northern Hemisphere. This could be very significant, if the snow cover were to reach a critical threshold coverage, due to the fact that snow has a very high albedo (reflectivity of incoming sunlight).
ALBEDO COMPARISONS FOR VARIOUS EARTH SURFACES
Fresh snow cover – average albedo 75%
Soil exposed, with no snow average albedo 29%
Ice average albedo, 38% versus water 10% or less.
Recall FACT 3, which stated a change of just 1.5% in the earth’s average albedo will correspond to a temperature change of .5°C. This shows how SIGNIFICANT an increase in the snow coverage over the land could be when it comes to the Northern Hemisphere Temperatures. If the AO oscillation becomes predominately negative, (low solar activity/increases in high latitude, volcanic activity contributing to a more –AO), our expectations are the snow coverage will increase in the Northern Hemisphere. Further, if critical thresholds are met, this could have a profound effect on the temperature.
FACT 18 – Variability in temperatures on a short tem (month to month basis in the same climatic regime) in addition to being influenced by the PDO (pacific decadal oscillation phase) ENSO (La Nina versus El Nino) or volcanic activity or lack of it, to name a few is also influenced by the amount of CONVECTION in the tropical Pacific. When the convective activity in high, this will cause warming of the temperatures for the globe as a whole, while if the convective activity is inactive, this will cause cooling for the temperature of the globe as a whole in the atmosphere.
NOTE: Convection activity has the opposite effect on surface temperatures of the earth.
During the convectively active phase of the ISO (Intra Seasonal Oscillations in rainfall activity) there is an increase surface winds of 1 to 2 knots averaged over the tropical oceans. This causes an increase in evaporation putting more water vapor into the atmosphere, causing more convective rainfall activity. The latent heat released into the atmosphere during this process exceeds the rate at which the atmosphere emits infrared radiation (long wave radiation) to space, resulting in a temperature increase.
An additional reason to bring this process up is the AGW theory is trying to say (wrongly) that an increase in CO2, will cause an increase in the amounts of water vapor to be present in the atmosphere, especially in the tropics close to the equator. This added water vapor will then cause an increase in the amounts of latent heat added to the atmosphere (same principle as the above) which will warm the atmosphere causing a HOT SPOT to form in the upper troposphere near the equator.
However, unlike in the above that verifies through observations, the CO2/water vapor positive feedback does not exist.
The troposphere HOT SPOT near the equator is missing, which means the positive feedback scenario between water vapor and CO2 shows no evidence through observation. A very serious blow to the AGW theory!
FACT 19 – The AGW THEORY is promoting longer residence times for CO2 remaining in the atmosphere then what really is the case. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) is saying the residence time for CO2 in the atmosphere is on the order of 50 to 200 years, in contrast to independent studies that have reached a conclusion of from 5 to 15 years.
Very short in contrast to what the AGW THEORY is trying to promote.
FACT 20 – BOND EVENTS – They have a cycle of approximately 1470 years. The last one took place during the Dark Ages around 535AD. Bond events are sometimes associated with a cold period but not always. Bond event number 5 as an example correlates with the 8200 year ago cold period. An earlier Bond Event correlated to the Erdalan glacial advance in Norway and cold in China.
If the 1470 year cycle holds as being true, we could have a bond event within the next few years. Bond events could be interglacial relatives to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschgr events (abrupt warming events during glacial times) This is just more evidence that CO2 is not the driver of the climate.
FACT 21 – HEINRICH EVENTS – During these events, large quantities of ice break off from icebergs and ice sheets and traverse the North Atlantic Ocean, making it fresher and perhaps altering the thermohaline circulation. These Heinrich events occur in cold spells and immediately proceed Dansgaard-Oescher events. Dansgaard-Oescher events as mentioned are associated with a rapid increase in the temperature during glacial times, as much as 5°C in a period of 35 years. These two events like the bond events seem to have a cycle of 1470 years.
FACT 22 – Solar/Thermohaline Circulation/1470 year climate cycle connection – Southwest Weather, Inc. supports the theory that states the superposition of the DE VRIES – SUESS 210 year solar cycle, and the Gleissberg 87 year old solar cycle creates a solar variability every 1470 years, that impacts the fresh water concentrations put into the North Atlantic, which in turn either weakens or strengthens the Thermohaline Circulation. The effects, depending on the initial state of the climate; that being glacial or interglacial. Since we are currently in an interglacial period, we will examine the Solar/Thermohaline circulation possible connection for this initial state of the climate when solar activity is in a minimum state.
The connection between the Thermohaline Circulation and the Solar Cycle is if solar activity should reach a certain level of activity, it could through a modulating effect of the atmospheric circulation, either amplify or reduce the amount of sea ice entering the subpolar North Atlantic. This would then change the fresh water concentration of the subpolar North Atlantic, leading to a change in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production, which would either enhance or decrease the Thermohaline Circulation.
If solar activity were to reach a certain minimum magnitude (every 1470 years), it could modulate the atmospheric circulation, resulting in a negative Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which in turn would amplify the transport (due to a stronger northerly wind flow over the North Sea to the Sub Polar North Atlantic, in response to a negative NAO) of drift ice into the Sub Polar North Atlantic, causing the salinity concentrations and the temperature of the Sub Polar North Atlantic waters to decrease. (Density decreases overall despite colder water temperatures)
This would cause a reduction in NADW formation, which would lead to a weakening of the Thermohaline Circulation. The result would be a further cooling in the higher latitudes, due to less northward transport of heat via the Thermohaline Circulation.
This would then have a PROFOUND EFFECT on the temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere much MORE, then what the solar reduction in activity itself would suggest.
FACT 23 – CONTINENTAL DRIFT – Southwest Weather, Inc. feels the present arrangement of the continents, versus oceans is conductive for glacial conditions. The reason is that most of the land mass in both hemispheres is located in high latitudes, with water exerting a modulation effect on both the land mass in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as the Southern Hemisphere.
The land/ocean arrangement in the Southern Hemisphere causing Antarctic to still be in an Ice Age, while the land/ocean arrangement in the Northern Hemisphere being very susceptible to any changes that may affect earth’s climatic system. This is why the Northern Hemisphere always responds to any force effecting earth’s climatic system, in a much higher degree of magnitude change in contrast to the Southern Hemisphere.
FACT 24 – URBINIZATION – This has resulted in a heat island effect for cities due to land surface changes, which result in a lowering of albedo. An Example would be surfaces of forest and grasslands prior to the construction of the construction of the city, being replaced by pavement and buildings. This is just a localized event nevertheless it has led to a positive bias when it comes to the reporting of temperatures. This fact should always be taken into consideration when trying to evaluate a regional temperature change, which has large urban areas from which the temperature data is being collected.
FACT 25 –THE LIVINGSTON AND PENN STUDY – According to their study, sunspots on the sun may completely disappear by the year 2015. They have been measuring the magnetic field strength of sunspots on the sun since the early 1900’s and have found the field strength has been on a steady decline since the early 1990’s and continuing today. If the present magnetic field strength associated with the sunspots should continue to decline at the same rate going forward from this point in time, according to their study would result in a magnetic field to weak to support sunspots.
The magnetic field strength of the sunspots in the early 1990’s was around 3000 gauss, the magnetic field strength has since fallen to approximately 2000 gauss. They theorize that if this decline should lead to a magnetic field strength of 1500 gauss or lower, the field will be too weak to support sunspots. This could happen as soon as year 2015.
Southwest Weather, Inc. feels, if this should indeed become a reality, we would expect climatic conditions to return to levels similar to the Maunder Minimum period of time during the 17th century which was a time when the sun exhibited VERY few sunspots and Northern Hemisphere temperatures were at least 1.5°C colder then the temperatures of today.
FACT 26 – NON LINEAR –This is what the earth’s climate/oceanic systems are. This is very significant because in a non-linear system, the response for that system to CHANGE to a given forcing to the system is NOT linear proportional to the forcing. This would happen when a threshold is reached and the system becomes unstable, and bifurcates into a different state.
What this is saying in effect, is depending on the initial state of the climate/oceanic system, and various forces that have been at work on the climate/oceanic systems up to a given point in time, will result in an entirely different outcome for the climate/oceanic system even when a further change in a GIVEN force is the same. In other words the same force applied to the climate/ocean system could give a completely different result, depending on the initial state of the climate and how close or far it is from a particular threshold, due to various forces that have been exerting their influences on the climate/oceanic systems. The result is the same given force, could then cause the change to the climate/ocean system to be large or small.
This is why when a change in solar conditions (as an example) takes place, the result or impact to the climate system is not going to be the same each time. For example, it will depend on the duration of the solar condition, the degree of magnitude change of the solar condition in conjunction with the initial state of the climate, and where it is at, at a given point of time due to all the forces (including the sun) which exert an effect on the climate.
This is why the lag times for example; between changes in solar conditions translating to a change in climate conditions will be different each time. The result however, will eventually be the same if enough time elapses, and the degree of magnitude change is strong enough.